Will consumers tune in to a tiny TV in their hand?
NEW YORK - Rick Ung has a great way to kill time at the car wash, bank or airport. He watches TV on his cellphone. As a subscriber to the MobiTV service on Sprint, Ung uses a Palm Treo 650 smartphone to take in the Discovery Channel, TLC and other channels. "Of course, it doesn't look like HDTV," says Ung, 35, a freelance systems engineer in Daly City, Calif. "But you know what's going on, and it's pretty addictive." It's difficult to imagine the cellphone in your pocket ever replacing the plasma TV in your living room. But wireless carriers, broadcasters, handset manufacturers and content producers are betting that TV and video will become the next great mobile hotbed.

"Do people wake up in the morning and say, 'I wish I had a television in my handset'?" asks Roger Entner, an analyst at the Ovum research firm. "Of course not. But people thought the same thing about cameras in phones, and now you always have a camera with you." The IDC research firm says that by 2010, about 24 million consumers representing 9.2% of U.S. cellular subscribers will watch TV or video on mobile handsets, up from about 7 million this year. Revenue will roughly quadruple and exceed $1.5 billion. "Given all the right conditions, mobile TV has the potential to spread from one customer to the next like few technologies before it," says Stephen Froehlich, an analyst at IMS Research in Austin.


When Sprint first launched MobiTV in 2003, the video crawled along at one or two frames a second, more like a slide show than regular TV. Now, the migration to speedier 3G, or "third-generation," cellular networks lets mobile operators bolster the quality of video made available to subscribers. Some programming is streamed live, though most consists of on-demand video clips. And a battle is brewing over emerging networks that promise true TV-quality video on mobile handsets. They'll operate like broadcast TV, without putting strains on existing cellular networks. Qualcomm's MediaFlo subsidiary plans to launch one such network early next year through Verizon Wireless. An alternative known as DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcasting-Handheld) has support from tech giants including Intel, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia and Texas Instruments. But no U.S. wireless carrier has signed on. The rollouts will take time. "The business models are the tough pieces," says Jane Zweig, CEO of wireless industry consulting firm Shosteck Group. Plus, folks will have to spring for expensive new phones.


OK for now
Some consumers are making do with existing cellphone TV services. MobiTV subscriber Steve Ricks, an executive in the Illinois state government, typically catches up on the news at lunchtime on his Cingular LG and Sony Ericsson handsets. He recalls following the events of Hurricane Katrina. "The news was where I was and I like that convenience," says the 52-year-old, whose viewing experience has been positive. Englewood, Calif., fourth-grade teacher and aspiring hip-hop artist Jeff "Perfecto" Walsh, 27, watches the GoTV Networks Hip Hop Official mobile channel (via his Sprint Samsung phone) because, "It's giving me news I probably couldn't have gotten elsewhere." The urban-oriented channel includes on-demand music videos. Walsh laments glitches when cell coverage is spotty and wishes he could rewind or fast-forward. Mass adoption is by no means assured. "The average consumer needs to see the value and quality of the experience," says Linda Barrabee, a Yankee Group analyst. Her firm recently reported that slightly more than half of consumers surveyed were willing to spend more money on data services than they currently do. Of those, 24% said they'd spend it on video or TV.


Pricing is a question. Sprint charges $15 to $25 a month for a data plan that includes video, on top of voice-subscription plans. But for carriers to keep monthly fees reasonable, it's expected that consumers will have to tolerate advertising. Already, a 10-second Toyota spot airs at the beginning of two-minute episodes of the Fox mobile spinoff of Prison Break: Proof of Innocence on Sprint. Moreover, carriers and content producers must deliver material that makes sense on small screens. Key issues:


•How long will people watch? Analyst Froehlich says based on global trials, customers fit one of three basic patterns. "Snackers" spend three to five minutes watching stand-up comedy clips, sports highlights and so on. "Commuters" (or lunchtime viewers) will devote 20 to 30 minutes to watch sitcoms, dramas or news. And then there are "background noise viewers," who actually use mobile TVs at home.


Michael Schueppert, president of leading DVB-H provider Modeo, a subsidiary of Crown Castle International, says average usage in Pittsburgh trials was about 30 minutes a day, twice what was expected. MediaFlo is seeing similar patterns in its own trials (in two undisclosed Western and Midwestern cities), says Gina Lombardi, president of MediaFlo USA.


•What will they watch? Mobile content may or may not look like stuff produced for the big screen.


Sprint Nextel Vice President Paul Reddick says there are several ways to approach programming: live or on demand, full length or short form, streamed or downloaded, broadcast to many or to one.

Fox coined the term "mobisode" as it launched 24: Conspiracy on Verizon's V Cast last year. The episodes, about a minute or so, carry parallel story lines to the regular 24. Fox says more than 2 million mobisodes (24 and other series) have been downloaded.

"I'd love to do more experiments on what's the right way to release video," says Mitch Feinman, senior vice president at Fox Mobile Entertainment. Feinman is considering new genres and wondering whether mobile programming should be offered daily or more frequently. Shows could be delivered, he says, through multimedia messages sent directly to consumers. Or viewers would have to seek out the TV fodder they want to watch on their own.

GoTV (on Sprint Nextel, Cingular and Boost) unveiled a mobile "reality" series, Primped, in which model Vida Guerra helps turn "plain Janes" into gorgeous divas. Viewers can buy the full season for $6.99.

It's not out of the question that people will watch longer shows or even movies on their phones, Reddick suggests, though probably not in a single gulp. Content might be sliced into DVD-like chapters.

•Technological challenges. Delivering more fluid video helps, whether through 3G or separate broadcast networks. "It sometimes takes awhile to load the video," says Maureen Denicke, 60, a Mill Valley, Calif., elementary school teacher who uses her Sprint Sanyo phone to watch GoTV's SportsEdge show.

But content providers have to live within the confines of the small screen. ESPN customizes sports highlights for mobile devices by showing close-up reactions of players and fans and tight shots of the action. "Watching a live hockey game on a phone will be a challenge, but we'll try and figure out a way to produce it," says John Zehr, an ESPN vice president.

There are tradeoffs in screen and device size and battery life. Top-resolution screens are power hogs. "Battery will remain a big challenge for every manufacturer," says Bob Shallow, director of Nokia's multimedia experiences group. Ovum's Entner envisions phones that remind you to stop watching TV when the battery reaches, say, 25% of capacity.

The ability to flip channels quickly is another hurdle. MediaFlo says users will be able to switch channels in about two seconds, faster than with existing mobile TV services. And though almost everyone carries a phone, consumers ultimately may decide to use other portable devices for TV-type programming, perhaps a video iPod or Sony PlayStation Portable (PSP).

One of the most controversial approaches to mobile TV surrounds the concept of "place-shifting" in which people remotely watch their own live and prerecorded programs wherever they are.

The road ahead

A prime example is Sling Media's Slingbox, a $200 cigarette-carton-size box that connects to your home TV or TiVo and redirects that content through the Internet to certain phones (and more commonly) laptops. "All we're doing is giving people access to the content they already have and know," says Sling Media CEO Blake Krikorian.

But the Slingbox is considered disruptive technology that is not necessarily friendly to content holders. "There's a whole bunch of licensing issues," says Yankee Group's Barrabee. Meanwhile, Motorola has demonstrated a service called Follow Me TV that will eventually make it possible to move video from a home TV's set-top box to a cellphone. But the first version, launched this week by Verizon under the name Home Media DVR, lets consumers pipe video only to TV screens in the house, at about $20 a month.

"The technology to move the content to cellphones is ready to go, but the digital rights still need to be worked out," says Paul Alfieri, a Motorola spokesman.

Mobile TV is, after all, still in its infancy. "We absolutely understand we're in the early days and are maintaining a lot of irons in the fire around new things to see what people will do," says Jim Ryan, Cingular's vice president of consumer data.


By Edward C. Baig, USA TODAY